Text and Explanations for Y2K Analyses, Part 2, Details |
|
Some of the analyses for the Global Consciousness Project are quite complex, and a number of explorations have been done. We present here further explanatory texts to supplement the brief descriptions in the Y2K results pages, and to document some of the exploratory analyses.
Epoch Analysis and Odds RatiosDean Radin's first analytical examination of the Y2K data is summarized in two figures, one that shows the median absolute raw deviations for blocks of data centered on midnight in each time zone, and one based on these values converted to Z-scores and ultimately to an odds ratio, which is plotted against time. These analyses have been replaced, but remain of interest as one of the early steps toward an effective approach. The detailed description of the steps in Dean's analysis is both informative and interesting, and provides some insight into the search for an incisive strategy.
Explanation of my superposed epoch analysis: (Jan 2, 2000) Before examining the data, I presumed (1) that the turn of the millennium would produce a few moments of high mental coherence that would be reflected in each time zone, (2) that mental coherence may be reflected in physical systems as a reduction in noise or entropy, (3) that there may be 24 periods of reduced entropy in all eggs, centered around the stroke of midnight, and (4) reduced entropy can be detected as a reduction in variance among the egg values. To look for these reductions in entropy, I took the following steps: a) Download all per-second raw egg data from 12/31/1999 11:30 to 01/01/2000 11:30. b) Calculate the average absolute deviation (AAD) for these raw values, per second, across all available eggs. The AAD values will be our measure of "noise." c) Create 24 one-hour blocks of AAD values, each block centered on the stroke of midnight in each time zone. d) Create a superposed epoch analysis by overlaying the 24 blocks of data. e) Calculate the median for each of the 3600 seconds of blocked AAD data, call these values MAAD. f) Calculate a 5-minute moving average for the MAAD values. Call this average 5M-MAAD. The results are graphed in Figure 1. The prediction is a drop in "noise" around the stroke of midnight, and we see that 5M-MAAD does drop. The lowest MAAD value occurs 15 seconds after midnight. g) Calculate a standard error for each 5M-MAAD value. One standard error bars are shown in Figure 1. h) Find the grand mean of 5M-MAAD values from Figure 1, then create standard normal deviates (z scores) based on this mean and the observed 5M-MAAD averages and standard errors determined in steps f and g. From the resulting z-scores, create odds against chance for the graph in Figure 1. These values are plotted in Figure 2 (one-tailed). It is clear that something unusual occurred at the stroke of midnight in all of the time zones combined. NOTE: Instead of using AAD as a measure of variance among the egg values, one could use standard deviation. And instead of taking the median of the AAD values, one could use average. As expected, the results vary somewhat depending on what statistic one chooses. With some experimentation I found that AAD and median optimized the final graphs, and thus these particular stats were selected post-hoc to enhance the resulting spike at the stroke of midnight. But the basic approach used here was planned in advance of examining the data. Low vs High Population Time ZonesOne of the analyses suggested by the previous new year's data was a separation of data according to the population of the time zones. The following is Radin's detailed description of an extension of the previous analysis (Jan 9, 2000), looking at the effect of population density, and by implication, the amount of attention and celebration that would occur in different time zones. Here's my latest analysis, exactly as I did before, only now split by high population (HP) vs. low population (LP) time zones. The hypothesis is that all eggs would respond to the stroke-of-midnight moment of coherence, but there would be different "amounts" of coherence created as each timezone passed midnight, given that the world's population is not distributed uniformly. I've defined LP zones as -12, -11, -10, -9, -2, -1, +4, +6, +7, +11 based on examination of the world timezone map (www.worldtimezone.com) as compared to the world population in different countries, which I estimated through examination of the US Census web site (that site has an extensive international population database). Figure 1 shows the average median absolute deviation curves for the HP and LP, and Figure 2 shows the one-tailed odds against chance for the z score of the difference between the two curves. I've used a one-tailed test because I assume that the HP curve would drop below the LP curve at the stroke of midnight, reflecting a greater negentropic change for the HP time zones. The graph shows that the largest drop, and highest odds against chance, occurs 9 seconds before midnight. Ed May has brought to my attention that the two eggs in India are in time zones that run on-the-half-hour with respect to GMT. I have not adjusted this analysis for these those eggs. Corrected AnalysisSince the preliminary analysis on 2 January, 2000, we have identified a conceptual error, making the analysis centric to the GMT (UTC) time zone. Although the result showed a striking spike at midnight, it was not properly representative of Dean's original prediction. A corrected analysis addressing the intended question was completed on 23 January. This analysis has been thoroughly cross-checked, with the cooperative oversight of an independent observer, Ed May, and includes comparisons with the results of the exact same analysis applied to data from 1, 2, and 15 days after the Y2K rollover. Dean describes the new analysis, and discusses the impact of the exploratory mode, including the problem of multiple analyses, in the email accompanying the figures. Subject: re-tested Y2K analysis |