Syrian Tragedy Continues
The GCP technology is not well designed for long drawn-out events such as the ongoing attempts by the Syrian regime to crush demonstrations by people opposed to Bashar al-Assad's rule. Seen as a part of the "Arab Spring" the relatively peaceful demonstrations have so far been unsuccessful in creating a change, and indeed have been met with increasingly violent military action by the government. For the GCP, the best tactic we have for looking at such an "event" is to make a probe that examines a relatively sharp point in time. We can select a few hours, up to a full day as representative because that period is a sharply defined example or sample of the ongoing tragedy. Here we look at the daylight hours of Feb 9 2012 -- representing the bombing in Homs, where the Syrian military has focused its attempts to stamp out the resistance.
From The Globe and Mail:
As atrocities mount in Syria, international community struggles to choose course of action
The GCP event was set for approximately sunrise to sundown (8 am to 8pm local, 06:00 to 18:00 UTC). The result is Chisquare 43519 on 43200 df, for p = 0.139 and Z = 1.084.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.