New Year's 2008-2009

This year again we use the longstanding predictions of a meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New Year since 1998-1999, a total of 11 years. The probability for the squared Stouffer Z for this year is nearly significant at p=0.151 with Z=1.033.

For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of 10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest probability of 0.307 and Z=0.505 according with the prediction.

New Year's
2008-2009

In addition to the two figures above representing the results for the current year, a composite over the 11 years is also shown. The meanshift is nonsignificantly negative, contrary to the original prediction. The variance decrease prediction is supported with a p-value of 0.028 and Z=1.909.

New Year's
1999-2009


The following figure is an enlarged version of the 10-year average of the variance shown above, right.

New Year's
1999-2009


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