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"Day 1" as Rebels take Tripoli

Quotes from CNN on Sunday 21st August 2011 as Tripoli falls to rebels, two sons captured, and rumors of Gadhaffi captured too near end of day:

Aref Ali Nayed, an ambassador in the United Arab Emirates for the Libyan rebels' Transitional National Council, said opposition forces were calling Sunday "Day 1."

"The reason we declare it 'Day 1' is because we feel Gadhafi is already finished. He is already finished, most importantly, in our hearts," he said. "We no longer fear him."

Jumma Ibrahim, a rebel spokesman from the western mountain region around Zintan, claimed opposition fighters had taken control of the main intelligence operations building in Tripoli.

He also said some Libyan army personnel had defected and joined the rebels in the area of the capital's airport, which he claimed the rebels took over.

But government spokesman Ibrahim denied that the airport had switched hands, insisting all of Tripoli was safe and under the control of Gadhafi's forces.

CNN could not immediately confirm whether rebel fighters had taken control of any parts of the city, including the airport. But network staffers on the ground reports that this weekend's fighting appears to be among the most intense yet in Tripoli.

I could not find precise timing information, so the GCP event was set for the 24-hour UTC day. The result is Chisquare 86747.597 on 86400 df, for p = 0.201 and Z = 0.837.


It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

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