Iraq War Ends

On August 31, 2010 President Obama marked the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Mitch Stewart, Director of Organizing for America, provided a link to a video of the President's address, with a brief introduction:

As the President said, the struggle for peace is not over, but the progress we've made is undeniable.

This moment also represents a promise kept. As a candidate, President Obama laid out a vision for this country -- and bringing our troops home from Iraq was a defining part of that vision. It was one of the reasons that all of us knocked on doors, made phone calls, and voted.

Keeping that promise is important, not only for our brave women and men in uniform, but also for their loved ones, and for all Americans who have hoped and prayed for a resolution to this war.

For a number of reasons, this is an important, symbolic moment. The GCP watched the buildup, the protests, and beginning of this war long years ago. And we have watched the network response during prominent moments in Barack Obama's campaign and his Presidency. This speech represents both the long desired end of the war and another instance of Obama in the public eye. The GCP event was set for 2 hours beginning approximately 30 minutes before the speech (scheduled for 8pm, but I don't have the exact time) and continuing an hour or more after the speech. The result is Chisquare 7313.687 on 7200 df, for p = 0.172 and Z = 0.948. The graph shows the approximate time of the speech.

Iraq War Ends

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

Go to Main Results Page

GCP Home