Elections in Iraq, Jan 2005

The elections in Iraq, Jan 30 2005 were surprisingly successful by most news accounts. Although the insurgent violence continued, and more than 40 people were killed, the Iraquis went to the polls. Here is a little from an Indian newspaper:

BASRA (SOUTHERN IRAQ): Incongruously decked out with balloons and streamers, the world's biggest war zone birthday party ended with three cheers for democracy as the Anglo-American coalition forces played midwife to the birth of a nation.

As the world has since learnt, Sunday's nationwide poll in Iraq, the country's first real elections in half-a-century, had the extraordinary sight of an estimated 8 million of 13 million registered voters defying a surge of bombings and suicide attacks to cast their ballots.

The Iraqi poll panel's provisional estimate of turnout was 57%. Down in the mainly Shia south, turnout may have been even higher.

The GCP prediction was for a 12 hour period beginning with the opening of polls at 7:00 am. The Chisquare is 43687.5 on 43200 df, for p=0.049 and Z=1.655. The trace is interesting, because it is flat for several hours, until a little after noon, at which point the deviation becomes quite strong and persists until the end of the period. This follows the description of the voting: at first, the turnout was very sparse, as if people were testing the danger. But after a few hours the people came in droves, flooding many of the polling places.

Elections in Iraq, Jan 2005

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